AIRLINE ACTIVITY FORECASTING BY REGRESSION MODELS

Small-sample Forecasting Regression or Arima Models?

Probabilistic Solar Forecasting Using Quantile Regression Models

In this work, we assess the performance of three probabilistic models for intra-day solar forecasting. More precisely, a linear quantile regression method is used to build three models for generating 1 h–6 h-ahead probabilistic forecasts. Our approach is applied to forecasting solar irradiance at a site experiencing highly variable sky conditions using the historical ground observations of sola...

Time series forecasting by principal covariate regression

This paper is concerned with time series forecasting in the presence of a large number of predictors. The results are of interest, for instance, in macroeconomic and financial forecasting where often many potential predictor variables are available. Most of the current forecast methods with many predictors consist of two steps, where the large set of predictors is first summarized by means of a...

A revisit to efficient forecasting in linear regression models

This paper deals with the improved forecasts for the values of the study variable in linear regression models utilizing the minimum risk approach. It considers the simultaneous forecasting of actual and average values of the study variable and reports the performance properties of the classical unbiased forecasts and two biased forecasts with respect to the criteria of the bias vector,mean squa...

Forecasting relativistic electron flux using dynamic multiple regression models

The forecast of high energy electron fluxes in the radiation belts is important because the exposure of modern spacecraft to high energy particles can result in significant damage to onboard systems. A comprehensive physical model of processes related to electron energisation that can be used for such a forecast has not yet been developed. In the present paper a systems identification approach ...